UAM MARKET PULSE · ISSUE 15
Friday, June 26, 2026

The Index Holds Flat. Phoenix Slips Off Positive Watch.

All 25 tracked markets held their readiness scores this week, the first fully flat board since the move to v2 scoring in early June. The one directional move came in the watch layer. Phoenix reversed from Positive Watch back to Negative Watch, and it is now the only market in the index reading Deteriorating.

Score Changes This Week

All 25 tracked markets held this week. No audited score moves.

Markets to Watch This Week

Top 5 markets by predictive significance, generated from the AirIndex Forward Signals pipeline as of 2026-06-26.

#1 Miami, FL Score 70/100
POSITIVE WATCH / IMPROVING Signals 30d: 9 (#11)
Florida: strong enforcement, active DOT · Cluster: Florida Corridor
  • 27 operator expansion signals this period, 6 of them high confidence. Miami already holds full operator credit, so these reinforce its position rather than move the score. Watch the operational follow through over the next one to six months.
  • 11 regulatory posture signals, 3 high confidence. Regulatory credit here is already maxed, so these confirm the trend rather than add points.
#2 Orlando, FL Score 57/100
POSITIVE WATCH / IMPROVING Signals 30d: 14 (#4)
Florida: strong enforcement, active DOT · Cluster: Florida Corridor
Next 30 days: +5 points
  • 14 operator expansion signals, 2 high confidence. If the operational follow through lands over the next one to six months, the model adds about 5 points.
  • 9 regulatory posture signals, 1 high confidence. Orlando already holds full regulatory credit, so these hold the line rather than move the score.
#3 Charlotte, NC Score 24/100
STABLE / STABLE Signals 30d: 3 (#16)
North Carolina: limited enforcement, emerging DOT · Cluster: Southeast Emerging
Next 30 days: +5 points
  • 14 operator expansion signals, 4 high confidence. Charlotte holds no operator credit yet, so confirmed follow through over the next one to six months could add around 5 points.
  • 5 FAA corridor filing signals, 2 high confidence. These run on the usual sixty to ninety day aeronautical study cycle and validate vertiport credit the market already holds.
#4 San Francisco, CA Score 62/100
POSITIVE WATCH / IMPROVING Signals 30d: 9 (#10)
California: strong enforcement, active DOT
  • 3 infrastructure signals, none yet high confidence. A build that clears permitting over the next three to twelve months would be a major move, worth roughly 15 points if it lands.
  • 35 operator expansion signals, 27 high confidence. Operator presence is already fully credited here, so these point to deployment timing rather than a score change.
#5 New York, NY Score 54/100
DEVELOPING / STABLE Signals 30d: 128 (#1)
New York: moderate enforcement, emerging DOT · Cluster: Northeast Corridor
  • 662 operator expansion signals, 589 of them high confidence, far and away the most in the index. New York already holds full operator credit, so the volume confirms its standing rather than moving the score.
  • 38 FAA certification milestones, 34 high confidence. Same story: already fully credited, so these track deployment timing over the next two to six months rather than adding points.

See full ranked digest →

Industry Snapshot

This week the AirIndex pipeline ingested 164 new filings, processed 480 status changes, and logged 1 market watch update, for 646 tracked events in all since 2026-06-19. Below are the developments worth your attention.

  • WATCH CHANGEPhoenix reversed from Positive Watch to Negative Watch, with its outlook moving to Deteriorating. It is now the only market in the index reading a negative outlook.
  • FEDERAL BILLHR 7613, the ALERT Act, joined our federal watchlist this week. It directs an aviation rulemaking committee on ACAS Xr collision avoidance equipage for rotorcraft and powered lift aircraft. →

What a Flat Week Reveals

On the published board, nothing moved. All 25 tracked markets held their readiness scores this week, the first fully flat board since the methodology moved to v2 in early June. That is the system working as designed, not the platform going quiet. Every published score change has to clear a materiality bar first: a move of at least two points, a tier crossing, or a confirmed high confidence event behind it. The model still recomputes every day, and small one point wobbles come and go underneath, but they do not reach the published board. A flat week means no market cleared that bar, not that the pipeline stood still. It ingested 164 new filings and processed 480 status changes in the last seven days alone.

The exception sits in the watch layer. Phoenix reversed from Positive Watch back to Negative Watch on Tuesday, and its outlook now reads Deteriorating. It is the only market in the index carrying a negative outlook. The reversal caps a steady give back. Phoenix climbed to Positive Watch in late April, but its readiness score reset from 65 to 53 when the methodology moved to v2 on June 7, and the trajectory has not recovered since. For a market that spent the spring as one of the index's faster movers, the shift is worth watching.

The forward signal pipeline tells the more constructive story. Miami and Orlando still anchor the densest signal flow in the index, both on Positive Watch, both seeing operator and regulatory events that reinforce credit they already hold. The market to watch on the come is Charlotte again. It sits at a low base with a Stable outlook, yet the platform projects a five point gain over thirty days, matching Orlando's. The driver is a stack of operator expansion filings paired with FAA corridor activity, and because Charlotte holds little operator credit today, each confirmed event could move the score rather than just confirm a position it already holds. That mix of a low score and rising forward signals is what an early mover window looks like.

On the federal side, HR 7613, the ALERT Act, joined our watchlist this week. It directs a rulemaking committee on ACAS Xr collision avoidance equipage for rotorcraft and powered lift aircraft. It is early, but airspace integration and collision avoidance standards are exactly the groundwork that has to settle before commercial eVTOL operations scale, and we will track it as it moves.

UAM Market Pulse is a weekly intelligence digest from AirIndex. Forward signals are derived from the AirIndex Forward Signals pipeline aggregating classifier outputs, MarketWatch trajectory, and predevelopment facility milestones.

AirIndex · UAM Market Readiness Intelligence · airindex.io