Each entry is a rules-based prediction issued when a defined market-signal pattern fired. It resolves when an event matching the rule's criteria is observed in primary-source data within the window — or is marked invalidated or overdue if the window passes without a match. Same structural pattern as rating-agency credit watches and central-bank policy alerts. The discipline is in the rules and the resolution process, not in any single forecast.
58 open · 30 resolved. Reader-tier detail pages document the signal trigger, resolution criteria, and factor reasoning for each.
Methodology note: 50 automated legacy calls were closed as inconclusive at the Forward Signals 2.0 transition. They were not counted as validated or invalidated; the underlying records remain preserved for audit.
The specific forward calls AirIndex published in its monthly briefs, One Market Monday, and research — each tracked to resolution against primary-source events. Validated on 33% of 6 resolved calls.
First Albany UAM-enabling bill introduction. NY's next +20–30 move requires state legislation; no other factor lever remains given current weights.
Arizona SB1457 floor vote. If enacted, hasStateLegislation flips actively_moving→enacted (+10), pushing Phoenix 65→75 and crossing into ADVANCED. If tabled, regression to none (−10). Bill had House committee 'Do Pass' as of May 10; base case leans enacted.
Concord airport site progress — a vertiport zoning action or an operator named for the first-phase site. Either would push Charlotte toward 55–60 (MODERATE).
Federal cohort follow-on or an operator press release naming Atlanta as a tier-2 deployment market. Without it, April's +15 (10→25) is an intra-tier ceiling, not a tier crossing — this call confirms whether the soft April signal escalates.
Any operator-presence signal breaking zero — a high-confidence operator filing (site survey, MOU with a local authority, or service-route announcement). Projected +5 within 30 days.
Arizona registers at least one additional HIGH-confidence AAM-relevant signal — either operator-side (operator market expansion, infrastructure development, facility announcement) or legislative-side (further movement on SB1457 or SB1819, or a new AZ bill entering classification) — within 45 days of Phoenix Volatility publication.
Tampa registers a second high-confidence infrastructure or operator-expansion signal within 30 days of Florida Corridor Thesis publication. Resolves when a new IngestedRecord with affectedCities containing 'tampa' and eventType in {infrastructure_development, operator_market_expansion} is classified at MEDIUM or higher confidence within the window.
First CA rulemaking under SB 944. If it lands restrictive, regulatoryPosture downgrades friendly→neutral and LA drops 95→90 — the first negative score movement at the top of the index.
Call: Watson Island Heliport reaches operational no faa. Current status: occupancy pending. Developer: Linden Airport Services Corp. d/b/a Watson Island Heliport Corporation.
Joby Aviation acquired real property in Vandalia, OH (Columbus metro) on January 7, 2026 per SEC 8-K filing. Operator-infrastructure forward signal: site is expected to mature toward approvedVertiport=true within the typical 6–18 month site-permitting + ground-prep horizon, producing a ~+10–15 point score move on the Vertiport factor when the milestone fires. Routed from the audit-gate as a real forward signal that is not current-state (Joby owns property; no permits filed, no construction, no operations yet).
faa corridor filing — FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An FAA study outcome validates airspace progress but is not a direct AIS v2.0 score input.
4 faa certification milestone events tracked (4 high confidence). Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: Aircraft certification is not market-level OID deployment-stage credit; no direct market-score delta is assigned.
regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: No projected score change: regulatory posture is already friendly.
3 regulatory posture change events tracked (1 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: No projected score change: regulatory posture is already friendly.
7 faa certification milestone events tracked (2 high confidence). Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: Aircraft certification is not market-level OID deployment-stage credit; no direct market-score delta is assigned.
17 regulatory posture change events tracked (9 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: No projected score change: regulatory posture is already friendly.
17 regulatory posture change events tracked (9 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force.
14 operator market expansion events tracked (14 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
7 infrastructure development events tracked (2 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
20 operator market expansion events tracked (1 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
24 operator market expansion events tracked (3 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
16 operator market expansion events tracked (1 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
10 operator market expansion events tracked (1 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
24 operator market expansion events tracked (10 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
19 regulatory posture change events tracked (9 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: No projected score change: regulatory posture is already friendly.
184 operator market expansion events tracked (109 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
81 operator market expansion events tracked (27 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
81 operator market expansion events tracked (28 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
71 operator market expansion events tracked (42 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
86 operator market expansion events tracked (28 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
10 faa certification milestone events tracked (7 high confidence). Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: Aircraft certification is not market-level OID deployment-stage credit; no direct market-score delta is assigned.
2 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An FAA study outcome validates airspace progress but is not a direct AIS v2.0 score input.
3 faa corridor filing events tracked (2 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An FAA study outcome validates airspace progress but is not a direct AIS v2.0 score input.
3 faa corridor filing events tracked (2 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An FAA study outcome validates airspace progress but is not a direct AIS v2.0 score input.
3 faa corridor filing events tracked (2 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An FAA study outcome validates airspace progress but is not a direct AIS v2.0 score input.
3 faa corridor filing events tracked (2 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An FAA study outcome validates airspace progress but is not a direct AIS v2.0 score input.
9 infrastructure development events tracked (3 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
60 infrastructure development events tracked (27 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
13 infrastructure development events tracked (7 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
10 infrastructure development events tracked (5 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
10 infrastructure development events tracked (5 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
11 infrastructure development events tracked (6 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
136 infrastructure development events tracked (121 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
16 infrastructure development events tracked (4 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: No projected score change: regulatory posture is already friendly.
2 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
2 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: No projected score change: regulatory posture is already friendly.
3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
infrastructure development — Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force
Florida DOT plans to redirect ~$200M in unspent NEVI (EV-charger) federal funds into 32 eVTOL landing pads statewide (~$5.6M per site), under HB 1093 (signed 2026-04-20, effective 2026-07-01), which authorizes FDOT to fund up to 100% of public vertiport construction. Orlando's first vertistop was approved 2026-07-16 with construction targeted for Oct 2026. No Tampa site has been designated yet — which is exactly what this prediction tracks: a funded FDOT pad site named in the Tampa market would fire approvedVertiport (with zoning riding along), the market's stated gap in OMM #10. Routed from the audit gate as a real forward signal that is not current-state (program funded and legally enabled; no Tampa site, no permit, no construction).
4 faa certification milestone events tracked (0 high confidence). Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: Aircraft certification is not market-level OID deployment-stage credit; no direct market-score delta is assigned.
4 faa certification milestone events tracked (0 high confidence). Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: Aircraft certification is not market-level OID deployment-stage credit; no direct market-score delta is assigned.
4 faa corridor filing events tracked (0 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An FAA study outcome validates airspace progress but is not a direct AIS v2.0 score input.
3 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force.
2 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force.
16 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
12 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An expansion signal is not itself curated OID deployment-stage credit; no numerical delta is assigned before operational follow-through.
infrastructure development — Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
3 infrastructure development events tracked (0 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
infrastructure development — Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
infrastructure development — Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
faa certification milestone — Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: Aircraft certification is not market-level OID deployment-stage credit; no direct market-score delta is assigned.
infrastructure development — Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
14 infrastructure development events tracked (0 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: An announcement does not change the v2.0 convertible-facility share until facility evidence is assessed.
regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: No projected score change: regulatory posture is already friendly.
Outcome: Window expired without resolving outcome event.
regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: No projected score change: regulatory posture is already friendly.
Outcome: Window expired without resolving outcome event.
regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force No direct AIS v2.0 score delta: No projected score change: regulatory posture is already friendly.
Outcome: Window expired without resolving outcome event.
regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force
Outcome: predicted 3, actual -1 (opposite direction)
SunTrax Air — Florida AAM Headquarters (under construction) — FDOT
Outcome: Administrative data correction: faa_registered was already effective 2025-11-30, before this call was generated; excluded from accuracy.
3 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — houston already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.
Outcome: Window expired without resolving outcome event.
3 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — dallas already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.
Outcome: Window expired without resolving outcome event.
3 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — austin already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.
Outcome: Window expired without resolving outcome event.
Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving
Outcome: predicted positive, actual -12
Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating
Outcome: DETERIORATING confirmed: -4
regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force
Outcome: predicted 5, actual -16 (opposite direction)
Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving
Outcome: Window expired without resolving outcome event.
Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving
Outcome: Window expired without resolving outcome event.
Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving
Outcome: predicted positive, actual -16
Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating
Outcome: DETERIORATING confirmed: -23
Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating
Outcome: DETERIORATING confirmed: -4
Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving
Outcome: IMPROVING confirmed: +3
Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving
Outcome: predicted positive, actual -26
Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving
Outcome: predicted positive, actual -18
Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving
Outcome: predicted positive, actual -13
Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating
Outcome: DETERIORATING confirmed: -2
Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating
Outcome: DETERIORATING confirmed: -1
regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force
Outcome: predicted 5, actual -13 (opposite direction)
8 regulatory posture change events tracked (1 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force.
Outcome: regulatory_filing matched predicted positive direction (Score gate published — regulatoryPosture=friendly for tampa. [NLP] Florida DOT and Embry-Riddle hosting AAM summit signals friendly state regulatory posture; applied to all tracked)
6 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force.
Outcome: regulatory_filing matched predicted positive direction (Score gate published — regulatoryPosture=friendly for san_antonio. [NLP] San Antonio invests $42M to prepare for air taxi future, indicating friendly regulatory posture and vertipo)
8 regulatory posture change events tracked (1 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — miami already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.
Outcome: Validation event landed: regulatory_filing (Score gate published — regulatoryPosture=friendly for miami. [NLP] Florida state funding initiative for vertiports signals friendly regulatory posture toward UAM in Florida's tracked markets (Miami, O)