Predictions Ledger · Rules-based · Public

Forward predictions, resolved against observed events.

Each entry is a rules-based prediction issued when a defined market-signal pattern fired. It resolves when an event matching the rule's criteria is observed in primary-source data within the window — or is marked invalidated/overdue if the window passes without a match. Same structural pattern as rating-agency credit watches and central-bank policy alerts. The discipline is in the rules + the resolution process, not in any single forecast.

Showing 81 open predictions · 1 resolved. Reader-tier detail pages document the signal trigger, resolution criteria, and factor reasoning for each.

On the calendar

Phoenix, AZOn the calendarhigh confidence
May 13, 2026 – Sep 10, 2026

faa certification milestone — Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months Validation event only — phoenix already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
Orlando, FLOn the calendarhigh confidence
May 27, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

6 regulatory posture change events tracked (1 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — orlando already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.

validation event (no score change)
Miami, FLOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026

Watson Island Heliport (occupancy pending) — Linden Airport Services Corp. d/b/a Watson Island Heliport Corporation

validation event (no score change)
Tampa, FLOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

7 operator market expansion events tracked (2 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — tampa already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
Miami, FLOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

28 operator market expansion events tracked (10 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — miami already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
Orlando, FLOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

15 operator market expansion events tracked (5 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Atlanta, GAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

7 operator market expansion events tracked (1 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — atlanta already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

+5 pts if realized
Charlotte, NCOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 3, 2026 – Oct 31, 2026

16 operator market expansion events tracked (5 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Los Angeles, CAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 3, 2026 – Oct 31, 2026

15 operator market expansion events tracked (3 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — los_angeles already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
Houston, TXOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 3, 2026 – Oct 31, 2026

55 operator market expansion events tracked (23 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — houston already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

+5 pts if realized
Dallas, TXOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 4, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026

56 operator market expansion events tracked (24 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — dallas already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
Austin, TXOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 4, 2026 – Nov 1, 2026

60 operator market expansion events tracked (30 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
San Francisco, CAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 7, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026

70 operator market expansion events tracked (53 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — san_francisco already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
San Antonio, TXOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 9, 2026 – Nov 6, 2026

42 operator market expansion events tracked (17 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — san_antonio already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
New York, NYOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 10, 2026 – Nov 7, 2026

463 operator market expansion events tracked (424 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — new_york already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
Tampa, FLOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 10, 2026 – Aug 9, 2026

5 regulatory posture change events tracked (1 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force.

+5 pts if realized
Las Vegas, NVOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. Validation event only — las_vegas already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

validation event (no score change)
Dallas, TXOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

6 faa corridor filing events tracked (3 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. Validation event only — dallas already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

validation event (no score change)
Miami, FLOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. Validation event only — miami already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

validation event (no score change)
Orlando, FLOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. Validation event only — orlando already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

validation event (no score change)
Charlotte, NCOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

5 faa corridor filing events tracked (2 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. Validation event only — charlotte already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

validation event (no score change)
Austin, TXOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

7 faa corridor filing events tracked (4 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
San Diego, CAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Phoenix, AZOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Los Angeles, CAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. Validation event only — los_angeles already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

validation event (no score change)
Houston, TXOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

9 faa corridor filing events tracked (6 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Washington D.C., DCOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

5 faa corridor filing events tracked (2 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Nashville, TNOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Chicago, ILOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Boston, MAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Atlanta, GAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Seattle, WAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

7 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Columbus, OHOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Denver, COOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
San Antonio, TXOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

5 faa corridor filing events tracked (2 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Minneapolis, MNOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

4 faa corridor filing events tracked (1 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
San Francisco, CAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jun 29, 2026 – Oct 27, 2026

29 faa certification milestone events tracked (26 high confidence). Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months. Validation event only — san_francisco already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
New York, NYOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jul 5, 2026 – Aug 4, 2026

6 faa corridor filing events tracked (2 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination. Validation event only — new_york already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

validation event (no score change)
New York, NYOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jul 7, 2026 – Nov 4, 2026

20 faa certification milestone events tracked (19 high confidence). Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months. Validation event only — new_york already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
San Francisco, CAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jul 10, 2026 – Aug 9, 2026

7 faa corridor filing events tracked (2 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Charlotte, NCOn the calendarhigh confidence
Jul 25, 2026 – Apr 26, 2027

infrastructure development — Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months Validation event only — charlotte already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

validation event (no score change)
Los Angeles, CAOn the calendarhigh confidence
Aug 6, 2026 – May 8, 2027

21 infrastructure development events tracked (16 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. Validation event only — los_angeles already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

validation event (no score change)
Tampa, FLOn the calendarhigh confidence
Aug 7, 2026 – May 9, 2027

5 infrastructure development events tracked (1 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

+15 pts if realized
New York, NYOn the calendarhigh confidence
Aug 9, 2026 – May 11, 2027

8 infrastructure development events tracked (6 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. Validation event only — new_york already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

validation event (no score change)
San Antonio, TXOn the calendarhigh confidence
Aug 9, 2026 – May 11, 2027

6 infrastructure development events tracked (3 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

+15 pts if realized
Orlando, FLOn the calendarhigh confidence
by Dec 28, 2026

SunTrax Air — Florida AAM Headquarters (under construction) — FDOT

validation event (no score change)
San Francisco, CAOn the calendarmedium confidence
Apr 17, 2026 – Jun 16, 2026

regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force

+5 pts if realized
Los Angeles, CAOn the calendarmedium confidence
Apr 17, 2026 – Jun 16, 2026

regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force Validation event only — los_angeles already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.

validation event (no score change)
San Diego, CAOn the calendarmedium confidence
Apr 17, 2026 – Jun 16, 2026

regulatory posture change — Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force Validation event only — san_diego already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.

validation event (no score change)
Charlotte, NCOn the calendarmedium confidence
May 27, 2026 – Sep 24, 2026

faa certification milestone — Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months

+5 pts if realized
Phoenix, AZOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 1, 2026 – Jul 31, 2026

3 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force.

+5 pts if realized
Chicago, ILOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

9 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — chicago already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
Las Vegas, NVOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

4 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Seattle, WAOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

4 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Columbus, OHOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

5 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Boston, MAOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

4 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Minneapolis, MNOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

4 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Washington D.C., DCOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

4 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Nashville, TNOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

5 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Phoenix, AZOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

6 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — phoenix already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
Denver, COOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

4 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Salt Lake City, UTOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
San Diego, CAOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

5 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

+5 pts if realized
Cincinnati, OHOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 2, 2026 – Oct 30, 2026

3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — cincinnati already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

validation event (no score change)
Austin, TXOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 4, 2026 – Aug 3, 2026

2 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — austin already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.

validation event (no score change)
Dallas, TXOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 4, 2026 – Aug 3, 2026

2 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — dallas already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.

validation event (no score change)
Houston, TXOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 4, 2026 – Aug 3, 2026

2 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — houston already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.

validation event (no score change)
San Antonio, TXOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 8, 2026 – Aug 7, 2026

5 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force.

+5 pts if realized
San Diego, CAOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 15, 2026 – Mar 17, 2027

infrastructure development — Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months

+15 pts if realized
Salt Lake City, UTOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

3 faa corridor filing events tracked (0 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Cincinnati, OHOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

3 faa corridor filing events tracked (0 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
Tampa, FLOn the calendarmedium confidence
Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 26, 2026

3 faa corridor filing events tracked (0 high confidence). FAA aeronautical study cycle for corridor or facility determination.

validation event (no score change)
San Francisco, CAOn the calendarmedium confidence
Aug 6, 2026 – May 8, 2027

3 infrastructure development events tracked (0 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

+15 pts if realized
Cincinnati, OHOn the calendarmedium confidence
Aug 9, 2026 – May 11, 2027

2 infrastructure development events tracked (0 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

+15 pts if realized
Columbus, OHOn the calendarmedium confidence
Aug 9, 2026 – May 11, 2027

2 infrastructure development events tracked (0 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

+15 pts if realized
Miami, FLOn the calendarmedium confidence
by Jul 9, 2026

Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating

+0 pts if realized
Phoenix, AZOn the calendarmedium confidence
by Jul 9, 2026

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving

0 pts if realized
Chicago, ILOn the calendarmedium confidence
by Jul 9, 2026

Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating

+0 pts if realized
Denver, COOn the calendarmedium confidence
by Jul 9, 2026

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving

+0 pts if realized
Orlando, FLOn the calendarmedium confidence
by Jul 9, 2026

Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating

+0 pts if realized
Tampa, FLOn the calendarmedium confidence
by Jul 9, 2026

Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating

+0 pts if realized

Resolved

Miami, FLValidated
Resolved May 6, 2026

6 regulatory posture change events tracked (1 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — miami already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.

Outcome: Validation event landed: regulatory_filing (Score gate published — regulatoryPosture=friendly for miami. [NLP] Florida state funding initiative for vertiports signals friendly regulatory posture toward UAM in Florida's tracked markets (Miami, O)

Want the rule trigger and resolution criteria? Click any prediction above to read the signal that fired the rule, what would count as validation, and the factor-level reasoning. Free with a Reader account.