Forward predictions, resolved against observed events.

Federal cohort follow-on or an operator press release naming Atlanta as a tier-2 deployment market. Without it, April's +15 (10→25) is an intra-tier ceiling, not a tier crossing — this call confirms whether the soft April signal escalates.

Any operator-presence signal breaking zero — a high-confidence operator filing (site survey, MOU with a local authority, or service-route announcement). Projected +5 within 30 days.

Arizona registers at least one additional HIGH-confidence AAM-relevant signal — either operator-side (operator market expansion, infrastructure development, facility announcement) or legislative-side (further movement on SB1457 or SB1819, or a new AZ bill entering classification) — within 45 days of Phoenix Volatility publication.

Tampa registers a second high-confidence infrastructure or operator-expansion signal within 30 days of Florida Corridor Thesis publication. Resolves when a new IngestedRecord with affectedCities containing 'tampa' and eventType in {infrastructure_development, operator_market_expansion} is classified at MEDIUM or higher confidence within the window.

First CA rulemaking under SB 944. If it lands restrictive, regulatoryPosture downgrades friendly→neutral and LA drops 95→90 — the first negative score movement at the top of the index.

20 faa certification milestone events tracked (19 high confidence). Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months. Validation event only — new_york already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

11 operator market expansion events tracked (4 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

infrastructure development — Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months Validation event only — charlotte already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

45 operator market expansion events tracked (23 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

8 infrastructure development events tracked (6 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months. Validation event only — new_york already has full credit on approvedVertiport.

9 infrastructure development events tracked (5 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

48 infrastructure development events tracked (1 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

22 infrastructure development events tracked (1 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

SunTrax Air — Florida AAM Headquarters (under construction) — FDOT

faa certification milestone — Aircraft certification milestone — typically precedes operator deployment by 2-6 months

3 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force.

3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow. Validation event only — cincinnati already has full credit on activeOperatorPresence.

3 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — houston already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.

3 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — dallas already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.

3 regulatory posture change events tracked (0 high confidence). Regulatory posture shift — typically follows executive order or task force. Validation event only — austin already has full credit on regulatoryPosture.

3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

2 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

10 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

5 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

3 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

4 operator market expansion events tracked (0 high confidence). Operator announcement — follow-on operational events typically follow.

2 infrastructure development events tracked (0 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

3 infrastructure development events tracked (0 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

infrastructure development — Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months

2 infrastructure development events tracked (0 high confidence). Infrastructure development announcement — typical permit-to-operational cycle 3-12 months.

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving

Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving

Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving

Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating

Market shows negative momentum; watch flagged deteriorating

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving

Market shows positive momentum across recent signals; watch flagged improving